AI threatens 3 million UK jobs over the next decade, new study warns

Artificial intelligence is rapidly making inroads into Britain’s labour market, and a new study indicates that millions of workers could feel its impact within the next decade. A report by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) states that up to three million low-skilled jobs may disappear by 2035 as AI and automation accelerate across industries. The researchers note that the broader economy could still generate about 2.3 million new roles during the same period, yet these opportunities are unlikely to fall evenly, leaving tradespeople, machine operators and administrative staff facing the highest threat of displacement as routine and predictable tasks are increasingly handled by software or robotics.

The study outlines that administrative assistants, factory and machine operators, warehouse staff, cashiers and a number of manual trades such as plumbing, roofing and electrical work are the most vulnerable occupations. These roles were identified as particularly exposed because of their repetitive nature. In contrast, jobs that require creativity, emotional intelligence and complex judgement, including law, management, healthcare, education and psychology, are considered more resilient, with the report stating that demand for highly skilled professionals is expected to rise as technology boosts productivity and increases workloads in the short to medium term.

The researchers nevertheless emphasise that even these professional fields will not be immune to change, as lawyers, consultants and other specialists increasingly adopt AI tools for research, drafting and data analysis, reducing the need for junior support staff. As per media reports, Jude Hillary, one of the report’s authors, stated that fears of mass AI-driven unemployment may be overstated for now, adding that predictions about the pace of disruption remain uncertain and that many employers are unsure how to navigate the shift. He noted that while low-skilled workers are most at risk, the real challenge is how displaced individuals will retrain, pointing out that most new roles emerging in the labour market fall within professional and associate professional categories, making re-entry difficult for those pushed out of vulnerable sectors.

The NFER’s findings mirror a series of recent studies signalling that AI is beginning to reshape labour demands, though researchers disagree on which industries face the greatest exposure. Hillary said current job cuts are likely influenced more by the UK’s sluggish economic climate than AI itself, suggesting that employers are delaying major decisions until the implications of AI adoption become clearer. For now, the outlook for British workers appears mixed: some professions are set to grow, others will contract, and millions may need to reskill to secure a place in an increasingly AI-driven economy.