Full tariff on foreign films in the US may dent Indian cinema’s global business

A potential 100% tariff on foreign films entering the United States — as floated by former US President Donald Trump during his recent campaign trail — has sent ripples through India’s film industry. Though details remain unclear and implementation uncertain, producers and distributors fear that such a move could hit box office revenues, inflate ticket prices, and make Indian films less viable in one of their key overseas markets.

The United States remains a significant contributor to India’s international film business. While not the largest overseas market for Indian cinema, it is among the most visible, especially for Bollywood and South Indian films with strong diaspora appeal. As much as 5–7% of overall revenues come from the US alone, according to industry estimates, and up to 20% from all overseas territories combined. Any disruption to that revenue stream, producers say, would have far-reaching consequences — from theatrical earnings to downstream digital and satellite deals.

“We need to understand that the US is a big market,” said Gaurav Bose, producer at The Vermillion World. “The overseas box office contributes about 20% of a film’s income. If US business is impacted, we will face consequences we may not like. It will be a big dent to the system.” Bose added that the ripple effect could also be felt in the pricing of digital rights. “If we stop releasing films overseas, the demand for digital versions might grow, but the current market is already bad. This kind of shock would make things worse.”

Echoing concerns about policy unpredictability, Shibasish Sarkar, President of the Producers Guild of India, urged caution. “We’ve seen similar tariff threats before, and they were either withdrawn or never enforced,” he said. “But if implemented, this will negatively impact not just Bollywood, but all of Indian cinema. Theatres would pass on costs to consumers, ticket prices would rise, and footfalls could drop sharply.” Sarkar estimates that Indian films earn $100–150 million annually from US box office collections — a figure that could plummet under the weight of additional tariffs.

In a broader perspective, film exhibitor and distributor Akshaye Rathi pointed to how Russia responded when Hollywood films were blocked post the Ukraine conflict. “95% of Russia’s box office was American films,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Instead of complaining, the Russian government supported local creators to scale up. Now, Russia’s box office is back to pre-war levels — but without Hollywood taking a share.” Rathi argued that India’s entertainment sector has historically been neglected by successive governments and remains under-leveraged as a tool of soft power and economic potential.

Beyond policy debate and politics, stakeholders in the Indian film business are concerned about a domino effect. If the US — the world’s most influential film market — enforces harsh tariffs, other countries may follow suit, leading to more closed markets and fewer options for global distribution. There are also lingering questions about whether Trump’s proposed tariff would apply only to theatrical releases or also extend to streaming and OTT content — now a major revenue source for Indian producers abroad.

At its core, Trump’s pitch is about incentivizing film production within the US — a model India itself is pursuing to attract global shoots. But in an era of global content and increasingly digital distribution, such protectionist measures may do more harm than good.

For now, the Indian film industry is in wait-and-watch mode. But if the threat becomes policy, the business of Indian films in the US could face one of its biggest international setbacks in recent times.

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