Asia-Pacific to overtake North America as world’s largest consumer market by 2035

Asia-Pacific is on track to become the world’s largest consumer market by 2035, overtaking North America as private consumption across the region accelerates, according to a joint report by Bain & Company and NielsenIQ.

The report estimates that private consumption in Asia-Pacific will grow at a compound annual rate of 7%, reaching about $36 trillion by the middle of the next decade. This comes as global private consumption is projected to expand from roughly $65 trillion in 2025 to between $110 trillion and $120 trillion by 2035.

Consumer spending patterns across the region are already showing signs of a structural shift. In the 12 months ending June 2025, the value of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales in Asia-Pacific rose 4%, supported by a 2.8% increase in volumes and a 1.2% rise in prices. This contrasts with developed markets, where growth has largely been driven by price hikes rather than higher consumption.

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India stands out as a key growth driver within the region. FMCG value growth in the country rose from 7.2% in 2024 to 13.7% in the first half of 2025. Other markets showed more uneven momentum, with Southeast Asia’s growth moderating to 1.8%, while China’s FMCG growth accelerated to 4.7%, led primarily by online channels. South Korea continued to benefit from expanding e-commerce penetration.

Ravi Swarup, Partner and Consumer Products Practice Head at Bain & Company India, said consumption recovery is becoming visible across categories. “We are seeing early signs of consumption revival across FMCG categories… benefiting from income tax rationalisation, easing of food and commodity inflation, and improving consumer sentiment,” he said, adding that future growth would increasingly depend on higher penetration, consumption frequency and premiumisation.

The report highlights that Asia-Pacific’s consumer growth will no longer be driven by a single market. While China remains the largest contributor to regional GDP, India and parts of Southeast Asia are gaining importance, creating a more diversified growth landscape that will require tailored strategies from consumer goods companies.

It also points to widening differences in consumer preferences. Premiumisation is gaining traction in markets such as India and Indonesia, while China is seeing more polarised spending behaviour, underlining the need for differentiated pricing and product strategies.

Digital channels are expected to play an even larger role. E-commerce already accounts for around 40% of FMCG sales in China and South Korea, with social commerce and quick commerce expanding rapidly. A NielsenIQ survey found that nearly four in ten consumers in the region already use generative AI for online shopping, while another 40% are open to adopting it.

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David Zehner, head of Bain & Company’s Asia-Pacific Consumer Products practice, said the region would determine the next phase of global consumption growth. “The region’s opportunities, while vast, are uneven across markets, and companies need to understand local nuances while scaling,” he said.

Craig Houliston, Asia-Pacific Regional Consulting and Insights Lead at NielsenIQ, noted that generative AI adoption is already high in major APAC markets and is likely to deepen as consumers seek greater convenience and value. Bain partner Elle Yang added that success in the region would depend on balancing localised execution with scalable operating models as consumer behaviours fragment further.