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India-Pakistan tensions to trigger 5–10% dip in H1 2025 AdEx; brands hit pause on high-visibility media
Travel, outdoor, and news advertising set to witness pullbacks. Brands adopt cautious messaging and approach.
The impact of these shifts is expected to reflect in the advertising expenditure (AdEx) for the first half of 2025. (Image Source: Unsplash)
As military tensions between India and Pakistan continue following the recent Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor, India’s advertising industry is feeling the tremors. Several brands across categories have begun pausing, recalibrating, or redirecting campaigns, especially on high-visibility platforms like news, print, and outdoor, as they adopt a “wait and watch” approach.
A senior media planner told Storyboard18 that several travel and tourism brands have scaled back their presence on traditional media, while social media campaigns are being more tightly managed and reduced in scope. However, programmatic advertising continues to present challenges, with limited control over content placement raising persistent concerns about brand safety.
A senior media strategist said that while some clients have temporarily halted advertising on news platforms, the decisions are largely situational. “It’s a matter of common sense and context,” the planner noted. “Clients are being encouraged to proceed with caution, but there is no sweeping directive to suspend all activity. It varies by category, media strategy, and geographic focus.”
The impact of these shifts is expected to reflect in the advertising expenditure (AdEx) for the first half of 2025.
Prabhakar Tiwari, Partner, FRN Advisory, estimated a 5–10% dip in AdEx during H1, particularly Q1. “National players may reallocate spends, while local advertisers may freeze budgets altogether,” he said, noting that news and digital platforms could still benefit from surging viewership during crisis periods.
According to Tiwari, categories like travel, tourism, FMCG, entertainment, and cross-border trade-linked brands are most vulnerable to sentiment-driven cuts. Outdoor and experiential campaigns are likely to be deferred, while digital spending may pivot toward lower-funnel performance marketing, especially search and shopping ads.
“There will be a shift to subtle, empathetic messaging—focusing on unity, resilience, or functional benefits rather than emotional appeals,” he added. Notably, entertainment and IPL-linked sponsors may also dial down celebratory campaigns depending on how tensions unfold.
It is to be noted that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has already announced the indefinite suspension of the IPL 2025 due to military tensions between India and Pakistan.
"There is likely to be a sip of at least 5-8% in ad and promotional spending in H1 2025. Telecom, BFSI, and FMCG will be highly impacted, especially in terms of media spending. Besides, luxury, lifestyle, and food and restaurants related players will also restrain themselves from ad and promotional spending, " pointed out Neha Chopra, Leading Strategic Planning at ad agency Enormous.
Additionally, brands are likely to push the high-decibel campaign to next quarter. Ad campaigns related to a nationalistic tone will work right now, just like what Amul does, say experts.
Ad Rates Surge On New Channels
Experts highlighted a paradox: while some advertisers will avoid news platforms during heightened conflict, others will ramp up spending to capitalize on the viewership spike.
“Ad rates could surge 10–25% in the short term — especially on top Hindi and English news channels,” Tiwari noted. Regional news networks may also benefit, but premium inventory will be prioritized for high-spending brands.
"Brands should pay attention to television news channels at this point in time as the hunger for breaking news persists. TV Channels are giving exclusive news 24x7, which gives TV channels a larger inventory, which brands should ponder upon," Harish Bijoor Brand Guru and Founder, Harish Bijoor Consults Inc.
"Brands Should Not Panic"
Mayank Pravinchandra Shah, Vice President, Parle Products, offered a measured view. “I think we shouldn't panic. We should have confidence in our army,” he said, noting that Parle hasn't observed any significant disruptions yet. “Maybe if you're looking at outdoors, some advertisers may withdraw. But we're not doing any outdoor campaigns right now. TV campaigns and other things can continue.”
He added that consumer attention is likely to rise on platforms like TV, given the unfolding events. “We need to be a little alert, especially in border areas, but otherwise it’s business as usual across India,” Shah emphasized. Essentials and core FMCG categories, he said, are unlikely to see any slowdown. “Summer campaigns are on track, and ad spends haven’t been impacted at this stage.”
Still, not all categories can claim that level of resilience.
A media strategist Yasin Hamidani summed it up. “Geopolitical tensions typically trigger brand conservatism. We’ll see short-term volatility in AdEx, especially for emotional or celebratory campaigns. Until sentiments stabilize, context-neutral storytelling, regional messaging, and media agility will define marketing playbooks.”
SPOTLIGHT
At the Storyboard18 DNPA Conclave 2025, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw spotlighted the critical role of traditional media in an evolving digital landscape. He emphasized that such gatherings can aid the govt in formulating more effective policies for a balanced and sustainable media ecosystem.
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