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India’s GDP poised for strong 7.6% growth in H1 FY26, ICICI sees full-year expansion at 7% despite H2 cool-off
Manufacturing and services power momentum; government spending and resilient consumption offset export slowdown and capex tapering, says ICICI report.
The firm attributed the upbeat performance to strong manufacturing and services activity, along with continued government expenditure through the year’s opening quarters.
India’s economy is set to clock a robust 7.6% GDP growth in the first half of FY26, significantly higher than the 6.1% expansion recorded in the corresponding period last year, according to a fresh economic outlook report by ICICI.
The firm attributed the upbeat performance to strong manufacturing and services activity, along with continued government expenditure through the year’s opening quarters.
The report noted that GDP momentum remained firm through Q1 and Q2, supported by healthy domestic demand and steady investment flows. For the July–September quarter (Q2 FY26), ICICI expects real GDP growth of 7.5%, with Gross Value Added (GVA) rising 7.3%, largely driven by industrial output and service-sector resilience. The assessment also highlights improving seasonal indicators across consumption and production, reinforcing expectations of a broad-based recovery.
However, the economic pace may ease slightly in the latter half of the year. ICICI forecasts that H2 FY26 growth could moderate to 6.4%, weighed down by softer exports and the possibility of slower government capital expenditure. Despite these headwinds, consumption demand is likely to remain sturdy, buoyed by stable employment, easing inflation and festive-season spending.
The report further indicated that the Centre has fiscal headroom to sustain capital spending, contingent on successful divestment initiatives and resource mobilization. Based on these assumptions, ICICI projects full-year FY26 GDP growth at 7.0%, followed by 6.5% in FY27.
ICICI also pointed out that the GST rate cut implemented toward the end of Q2 temporarily suppressed demand as consumers deferred purchases, but retail sales data in Q3 suggests spending has now bounced back across categories.
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