Apple set to surpass Samsung in shipments for the first time in 14 Years

Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.3% YoY in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker. Apple’s smartphone shipments have performed strongly throughout 2025, particularly in Q3. Counterpoint forecasts that the brand’s shipments will reach a global share of 19.4% in 2025, making Apple the world’s No.1 smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011. Samsung’s shipments are also expected to grow 4.6% YoY and reach a global share of 18.7%, yet the company will relinquish the top spot it has held for more than a decade.

iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, posting a solid 9% YoY growth for the quarter. The launch of the iPhone 17 series marked a shift in Apple’s usual lineup, with the new iPhone Air replacing the Plus model, accompanied by adjustments in memory configurations and pricing tiers.

Our latest high-frequency data (week ended November 1) points toward bumper holiday season sales for iPhones. According to Counterpoint’s latest Weekly Sell-Through Tracker, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the US, including the iPhone Air, during the first four weeks after launch were 12% higher than those of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, sales of the iPhone 17 series during the same period were 18% higher than its predecessor, even though the Air model was not part of the initial launch. In Japan, sales for the iPhone 17 series during the first four weeks were 7% higher than those for the previous generation.

Commenting on the bullish outlook for Apple, Senior Analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters.”

Elsewhere, Apple also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts globally and a truce in the US-China trade and tech war. This not only helped Apple’s supply chain and the ongoing efforts to diversify manufacturing bases, but also aggregate demand in its key growth regions, i.e. emerging markets. Appreciating domestic currencies versus the US dollar and a resilient economic outlook boosted consumer confidence. With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025.

Apple is on track to launch the iPhone 17e, the successor to the iPhone 16e and the second model in the “e” series, in H1 2026. The company is also expected to release its first foldable iPhone by the end of the same year, with the first flip iPhone expected by late 2027. With shipments rebounding and even higher-priced foldables being launched, Apple is also expected to remain the top revenue contributor in the global smartphone market through the end of the decade. By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market.

The delay in Apple Intelligence, or a “more personalized Siri”, has not been a detriment to iPhone sales. When the features and software enhancements are introduced in 2026, it will likely provide a further driver of upgrades. We also forecast a major iPhone design revamp in 2027 to mark the 20th anniversary of the iPhone. Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple's installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade.

Samsung is expected to see a decent 5% shipment growth in 2025, supported by a resilient supply chain that has absorbed much of the tariff impact. A strategic pivot for the A series, featuring stronger specifications and competitive pricing, will further reinforce Samsung’s momentum in emerging markets, especially as key regions such as India, Southeast Asia (SEA) and the Middle East and Africa (MEA) continue on a solid growth trajectory. In mature markets, the ongoing premiumization trend, combined with stabilizing fundamentals in North America, Europe and East Asia, should help Samsung defend market share over the next few years. However, despite these positive tailwinds, Samsung is still expected to fall short of reclaiming the top global OEM position from 2025 through 2029 as the mid-lower end faces increasing competition from Chinese OEMs.

Chinese OEMs are increasingly relying on overseas markets for future growth, as regions such as India, SEA, MEA and Latin America (LATAM) offer a more visible growth trajectory than the saturated and fiercely competitive domestic market. At the same time, these companies are shifting toward higher price segments, investing in premium devices, AI capabilities and foldables to boost profitability and reduce reliance on the crowded low-end market. Supply chain uncertainties, however, continue to pose constraints on expansion. Of particular concern, we see the growing shortage of LPDDR4 memory and skyrocketing prices in most memory products posing challenges for Chinese OEMs, especially hurting the low-end smartphone segment. As a result, we remain cautious about Chinese OEMs’ growth in 2026, expecting only a 1.7% YoY growth for the top four Chinese OEMs (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo and OPPO). Nevertheless, Chinese OEMs are moving away from volume-driven strategies toward more balanced, value-oriented growth, supported by broader global diversification. As a result, the focus on shipments and market share will gradually become less important, and Chinese OEMs can carve a path towards greater revenue strength.