Global PC market resilient in Q3 2024 with 1% YoY growth amid replacement cycle

The global PC market remained stable in the third quarter of 2024, with shipments growing by 1% year-over-year (YoY) to reach 65.3 million units, according to preliminary estimates form Counterpoint Research.

This growth, though modest, continues the positive trend observed throughout the year, driven by a combination of replacement cycles and emerging interest in AI-powered PCs. Despite weaker demand from China and Europe and early pull-in orders from the previous quarter, shipments in Q3 were still approximately 5% higher than Q2.

The ongoing replacement cycle, spurred by the looming end of security updates for Windows 10 in 2025, played a significant role in driving demand. Additionally, the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) PCs, featuring cutting-edge CPUs from AMD and Intel, is expected to further fuel market growth in the coming quarters.

PC vendors have responded to this uptick in demand by launching new models, with Lenovo marking its fourth consecutive quarter of YoY shipment growth in Q3. The company has now reclaimed 25% of the market share it held since Q4 2020, benefiting from strong replacement demand.

Meanwhile, HP and Dell maintained resilience, particularly in North America, where enterprise orders remain robust. While Apple has been relatively quiet in Q3, the upcoming launch of its M4-based MacBook Pro, which features a 10-core CPU, is expected to energize the market in Q4.

Despite the back-to-school season, Q3 no longer represents the significant peak it once did for the PC industry. This shift is attributed to changes in work environments and lifestyle trends, as well as altered procurement strategies by enterprises.

Commenting on these developments, William Li, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted, "We have observed incremental demand for GenAI PCs, especially for laptops, after AMD and Intel's new CPU platform launches in Q3 2024. However, people are still looking for the 'killer application' that will bring AI PCs into everyday use, which we expect to materialize in the short term."

Looking ahead, the market is poised for continued growth through the holiday season, with Counterpoint Research forecasting a year-to-date (YTD) shipment growth of 2% YoY by the end of 2024.

While demand from Windows 10 replacements may taper off, the rise of AI PCs is expected to sustain the market's positive momentum into 2025.