One in every two cars to be battery electric in 2035 globally; local brands to lead charge in India

While the overall passenger vehicle (PV) market struggles, the electric vehicle (EV) segment tells a different story. Global EV sales jumped by 22% y-o-y. Global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) experienced 10% and 49% YoY growth, respectively, according to the Counterpoint Research’s report.

As per the report, one in every two cars will be a BEV in 2035. Also, by 2035, BEV sales penetration in China is expected to reach over 60%.

However, the fastest growth is expected from India, Latin America, Japan and Southeast Asia.

In India and Japan, local brands are likely to lead the charge, while Chinese brands are expected to dominate the markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America. BEV penetration in China, Europe and South Korea is expected to remain over the global average, the report said.

Global BEV sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% between 2025 and 2030, followed by a CAGR of 9% between 2030 and 2035. In contrast, PHEV sales are projected to achieve a CAGR of 15% between 2025 and 2030 but will begin to decline afterward as BEV adoption gains sufficient traction.

Stagnant Growth In Passenger Vehicle

Global PV sales in 2024 remained stagnant, growing by just 1% y-o-y, according to the report 'Global Passenger Vehicle Forecast'.

Geopolitical tensions, fear of looming recession and reduced consumer spending in key markets have all contributed to this temporary slowdown in the global automotive market.

According to the forecast, the PV market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2025 and 2030 and a CAGR of 2% between 2030 and 2035, surpassing 105 million sales by 2035.

Abhik Mukherjee, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, said, “Major Western automakers are struggling to make profits from their BEV units. To tackle this, they are shifting gears and focusing more on PHEVs for now.

This strategy gives them time to fix issues like supply chain gaps and optimise their BEV production processes. Even with a temporary slowdown in 2024, BEV sales, however, are likely to keep climbing."

He expects to see passenger BEV sales reach over 16% share in 2025.

"Automakers are working hard to solve their profitability challenges by improving production methods, teaming up with battery manufacturers and establishing localised supply chains. These efforts aim to cut costs, make BEVs more affordable and strengthen the supply chain for the future,” he added. Soumen Mandal, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, highlighted that the US is determined to protect its domestic automotive industry and will likely block Chinese OEMs from entering its market. Europe has already imposed additional tariffs to restrict the sales of Chinese brands and is expected to continue this approach in the future unless Chinese automakers invest in establishing manufacturing plants for vehicles and components within the region.