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Driven by artificial intelligence, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to acquire more than half of the global ad market, with a combined market share of 54.7% excluding China this year, according to WARC’s Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025 update. Overall, the trio will contribute to $524.4 billion in adex, which is expected to rise to 56.2% in 2026, the report added.

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.


Retail Media grows fastest; Video advertising to decline


Search is set to account for more than a fifth (21.5%) of the ad market this year, with spend rising 7.4% to $248.6bn despite regulatory threats; and 6.8% next year, by which time the market would be worth $265.5bn – equivalent to 21.5% of all spend, up from 21.2% in 2024. 

Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter (25.8%) of all ad spend this year, at a total of $298.3bn. A strong first quarter rise of 14.9% precedes an expected slowdown, with growth averaging 11.2% over the coming three quarters as tariffs begin to impact Asian brands disproportionately. The social market is still on track to grow 12.0% to $298.3bn this year.

Retail media is set to be fastest growing advertising medium this year (+14.4%), which accounts for an eighth (15.2%) of all global advertising spend this year. Amazon’s retail media ad business grew 21.0% to $13.3bn during the first quarter, accounting for a third (33.4%) of the global retail media market. WARC projects Amazon’s ad income will grow by 16.1% to $60.6bn this year. A further rise of 14.9% is forecast next year

Global video advertising spend is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, equating to 15.9% of all spend this year. The contraction is driven by a continued decline in linear TV, which still represents over three-quarters of the total video market, but is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV. However, video-on-demand advertising is forecast to rise by 13.2% to $39.9bn.


Slowdown in Global adex


According to WARC Media, global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16 trillion, a downgrade of half a percentage point from WARC’s March forecast as key sectors react to growing market volatility.

“Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins,” explains James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC.


Retail, auto brands to cut ad spends


Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are set to cut ad spend this year, while ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.

The automotive industry invested $56.8bn in advertising last year with almost a quarter (22.9%) going to premium video formats, but spend is expected to be down 4% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back brand building. However, budgets are shifting from video towards digital platforms, with automotive spend on social ads surpassing linear TV for the first time in 2025. The sector should rebound next year with a 7.5% rise pushing spend to a total of $58.6bn. 

Retail, with projected ad spend of $166.1bn this year (14.3% of the global ad market), faces a fall of 6.1% from 2024 levels. This largely reflects impending US trade tariffs on key goods and raw materials, which are poised to increase costs for global retailers, particularly those heavily reliant on Chinese imports such as Amazon and Walmart. 

The tech and electronics sector is expected to spend $90.3bn on advertising this year. A YOY rise of 5.5% represents a cut from our +6.2% forecast in March: a sharp slowdown from the 24.3% rise recorded last year. Tariffs are driving the sector to adjust go-to-market strategies, shifting investments toward less-affected regions or different product lines to buffer against hardware margin erosion. 

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies experienced their weakest first quarter sales revenues since the pandemic. Further, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, CPG companies are facing major disruption to their established supply chains. WARC expects core CPG sectors, such as soft drinks (+7.1%), toiletries & cosmetics (+7.2%) and household & domestic (+4.2%) to record growth in advertising spend at a global level this year, though all see a significant slowdown from 2024.

With AI push, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together to acquire 54.7% of global ad market: WARC

As global advertising expenditure surpasses $1.1 trillion in 2025, traditional formats like television and print continue to lose ground, making way for digital-first and data-driven media channels, according to WPP Media’s 'Mid-Year Global Advertising Forecast'. 

Global television advertising— including both traditional and streaming formats— is projected to grow just 1.0% to $162.5 billion in 2025. While this signals a modest recovery, it masks a more significant transformation beneath the surface.

Streaming TV, which accounts for $41.8 billion of the total, is growing rapidly and is expected to reach $71.9 billion by 2030. In contrast, traditional linear TV continues to stagnate or decline in most major markets, suffering from audience fragmentation and the rise of on-demand content.

Print Advertising Continues Its Freefall

Print remains the hardest-hit medium, with global ad spend in this segment forecast to decline 3.1% to $45.5 billion in 2025. This follows years of consistent contraction, as advertisers move away from newspapers and magazines in favor of digital platforms that offer better targeting, measurement, and ROI.


Read more:<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/advertising/india-adex-to-rise-8-4-to-21-3-billion-in-2025-even-as-global-growth-slows-to-6-wpp-media-69775.htm"> India adex to rise 8.4% to $21.3 billion in 2025, even as global growth slows to 6%: WPP Media</a>


Even legacy media players with strong brand equity are struggling to hold onto ad dollars, especially as younger demographics increasingly consume news and entertainment online. While traditional media will still command a share of the global ad wallet, its influence and investment appeal are steadily being eclipsed by formats that deliver on data, flexibility, and audience precision

OOH Remains Resilient Thanks to Digital Transformation

Despite the flat growth for both TV and print, out-of-home (OOH) advertising is one of the few traditional formats showing resilience. The global OOH market is expected to remain steady at $52 billion in 2025, with digital OOH (DOOH) accounting for a significant 41% of that spend, the report said.

Advertisers are investing more in DOOH due to its ability to blend mass reach with digital capabilities like dynamic creatives and real-time targeting. This makes DOOH particularly effective in high-traffic urban areas and during large-scale events.

Meanwhile, audio advertising is expected to remain flat at $26.5 billion. The growth in streaming audio formats—like podcasts and digital radio—is being offset by a -1.7% decline in terrestrial (AM/FM) radio. Audio continues to be a valued medium for its immersive and intimate engagement, but overall investment is not expected to grow significantly in the short term.

The latest projections signal a clear reordering of media priorities in the global advertising landscape. As print continues to decline, and TV’s growth slows, advertisers are accelerating their shift toward digital video, streaming platforms, and dynamic outdoor formats.

Traditional adex under pressure as TV grows by 1%, print down by 3% in 2025: WPP Media

Media and advertising agencies are showing positive signs of growth in AdEx after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that under the new tax system, individuals earning up to ₹12 lakh will not be required to pay taxes. This is expected to boost household consumption, savings, and investments. As a result, brands are likely to increase their advertising spending by 15-20%.

Overall, this budget not only benefits individuals but also creates a ripple effect for brands and advertisers, making it a significant win for the advertising industry.

Experts suggest that brands in sectors such as retail & e-commerce, automotive, real estate, consumer electronics & smartphones, travel & hospitality, and fintech & BFSI are likely to aggressively increase their ad spending.

Mayank Shah, Vice President of Parle Products, stated, "The Union Budget takes a bold step toward driving demand for consumer goods and addressing challenges the sector has faced in recent years. For instance, making an effective tax-free income of ₹12.75 lakh is quite impactful, as it increases consumption due to higher disposable income."

Shah added, "With rising consumption, brands across multiple categories will increase their ad spending. The biscuit category alone spends ₹800-1000 crore on advertising, which is now expected to grow by 15-20%."

Rajiv Dubey, VP & Head - Media, Dabur India Ltd, said, "With the increase in disposable income for consumers, we anticipate significant growth in advertising spends by brands this fiscal year. Sectors such as FMCG, consumer electronics, and e-commerce are expected to lead this surge."

Dubey explained, "The recent budget has introduced significant tax relief for the middle class and increased spending on infrastructure and healthcare, which will further boost consumer confidence and spending. For instance, the expansion of healthcare facilities and the focus on rural development are likely to drive demand for FMCG products in these areas. Additionally, the emphasis on digital transformation and technology will encourage consumer electronics and e-commerce brands to invest heavily in advertising to capture the growing online market."

Shrenik Gandhi, Co-founder and CEO of White Rivers Media, said, "With more disposable income in consumers’ hands due to the ₹12 lakh income tax relief, advertising spending is expected to see a positive increase, particularly in consumption-driven sectors among the salaried class."

Gandhi continued, "The overall advertising market could experience a 10% boost, driven by increased discretionary spending. Digital ad spending, already on an upward trend, may accelerate further as brands look to capitalize on growing consumer sentiment."

Aasif Malbari, Chief Financial Officer - Godrej Consumer Products Ltd, said, "The Union Budget 2025 takes a balanced approach by strengthening rural infrastructure, manufacturing, and consumer spending—three critical pillars for the FMCG sector. Investments in rural development and job creation will boost economic activity and drive higher consumption, opening new opportunities for market expansion."

"Overall, the budget lays a strong foundation for a more consumption-driven economy, creating significant growth opportunities for the FMCG industry," Malbari added.

Ambika Sharma, Founder & Chief Strategist, Pulp Strategy, said, "The Union Budget 2025 has created an optimistic outlook for consumer spending, with tax reductions putting more money into people’s pockets. Naturally, brands will respond by ramping up their ad spends to capture this increased demand."

Sharma pointed out that overall, India’s advertising market is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2025, with digital media leading the way at a projected 15.9% growth. "With half of all ad revenues expected to come from digital channels by 2026, brands will prioritize online campaigns, programmatic advertising, and AI-driven personalization to maximize engagement."

AdTech industry experts are anticipating a sharp increase in ad spending. Prashant Puri, CEO and Co-Founder of AdLift, said, "We expect a 20%-25% growth in advertising spends across multiple sectors. Consumers will spend more on higher-order value products. We predict a significant increase in auto sales as people look to upgrade."

"With more disposable income, spending on travel and leisure is expected to rise, leading these sectors to boost advertising to attract customers," Puri added.

Meher Patel, Founder, Hector AI, explained that in order to capture the growing demand and increased consumer traffic, brands are projected to raise their advertising budgets by approximately 10%, with sectors like luxury goods, technology, and travel seeing particularly strong ad spend growth. Patel stated, "With more disposable income available to consumers, a significant boost in consumption is anticipated, especially in high-end cosmetics, electronics, flagship mobile phones, home appliances, personal care products, and the travel sector, including accessories."

High disposable income will boost AdEx, companies to increase ad budgets

Premium chocolate brands have ramped up their advertising spend for the Indian market as revenue growth surges significantly during the festive season. These Premium chocolate brands have increased their ad budgets by an average of 8-10% to expand reach and boost sales. Recently, several premium international chocolate brands have also entered the Indian market.

According to a report from Maximize Market Research Pvt. Ltd, the Indian chocolate market was valued at USD 2.74 billion in 2023, with revenue expected to reach USD 5.87 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 11.5% over the forecast period. This growth is largely driven by the rising demand for premium chocolates.

Albinder Dhindsa, CEO of Blinkit, had shared on his X account that 406 chocolates per minute were sold during Valentine’s week. Q-commerce platforms have significantly contributed to the growth of premium chocolate sales.

In the confectionery category, DS Group's ad spend for FY24 reached Rs 100 crore. Sanskriti Gupta, spokesperson for Läderach India at DS Group, noted, “In the luxury chocolate segment, Läderach has experienced over fivefold growth since its launch in India in 2023. Global brands are flocking to the country, recognizing the potential of its luxury market, primarily driven by a growing affluent class and an increasing demand for high-end experiences.”

Gupta added, “This momentum fuels our expansion plans. We recently launched our second store in Mumbai at Jio World Plaza, and we plan to open 5-7 more exclusive stores over the next two years. This festive season, we anticipate a 10% growth increase, especially as we focus on corporate and wedding-event gifting.”

Media agency experts indicate that premium  chocolate brands recently entering the Indian market have raised their ad budgets by 15-20%, while established brands have increased their spending by up to 7-10% for the festive season.

For Mondelez, premium chocolate accounts for 20% of its portfolio in India, with this segment growing 20-30% faster than the overall chocolate market. Ferrero, meanwhile, recently introduced its premium chocolate brand Rafaello to the Indian market.

Zoher Kapuswala, Marketing Head of Pralines at Ferrero India, commented, “The wave of premiumization in India has led to significant growth in premium chocolate sales. The launch of Rafaello was a strategic decision as we foresee high demand during the festive season. The chocolate is ideal for premium gifting, and we expect a strong response.”

Kapuswala also noted, “We have several strategies to enhance product reach and are targeting high-end buyers in our campaign.”

In recent quarters, companies like Unilever, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive, Pernod Ricard, Skechers, and Whirlpool have observed varied purchasing trends in India’s consumer market. Premium brands in the fast-moving consumer goods sector are growing at roughly twice the pace of their non-premium counterparts in India.

Gaurav Mirchandani, Founder Director of Candytoy Company, which recently partnered with Reliance Retail to supply confectionery toys for 1,400 stores, explained, “Our growth depends on the success of our partners. We currently received monthly orders of Rs two crore from Reliance Retail’s 200 stores, which we aim to scale up to Rs 4 to 4.5 crore per month by the end of this fiscal year.”

Mirchandani further added, “We manufacture candy toys for several companies, including Colgate Palmolive, Puma, MTR, Bournvita, Yellow Diamonds, Vistara Airlines, and AirAsia. With both domestic and international orders, we expect to close this fiscal year with Rs 260 to 280 crore.”

With the ongoing festive season, experts indicate that the premium chocolate brands are not only ramping up ad spending and opening exclusive stores for catering to festive gifting but are also driving year-round demand for premium chocolates. 

Premium chocolate brands boost AdEx amid Indian festive season

As the political landscape intensifies with election fever, there's a visible surge in political advertisements both online and on traditional media platforms. However, the messaging seems to follow a new pattern, blending political communication with an entertainment factor. And all of this comes at a cost. Media planners anticipate a substantial 35-40 percent surge in ad spends across digital, television, print, radio, and out-of-home (OOH) platforms during the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, compared to the 2019 elections.

Media planners are forecasting a wildly broad spectrum of political ad expenditures on mass media (newspapers, magazines, radio, television, and the internet), ranging from Rs 2000 crore to Rs 13000 crore.And yet, they all say these are conservative estimates. 

It's important to note that this range encompasses paid media channels only. 

“The estimates floating around are the accountable expenses on marketing and advertising. While Meta and Google and other bigger platforms publish ad transparency reports, there is no accountability on informal channels, spends on social media influencers and smaller media outlets. Election AdEx also includes spendings on OOH (out of home) which is not just the hoardings we see in cities but also the innumerable ones in smaller and rural markers, the posters on auto rickshaws and the innumerable cutouts and standees spread across the country,” said a media buyer who did not wish to be named. 


While there is no accurate measurement of spends, media buyers seem to agree on one factor. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be the top spender in the upcoming elections when it comes to advertising. 


Their ads are professionally curated and disseminated. 


An illustrative example is a recent ad featuring actor Vaani Kapoor for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The ad talks about the benefits of the Narendra Modi government and touches upon a host of schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, the Ayushman Bharat mission and others. 


The party has reportedly also called for a media pitch.


Ogilvy, McCann, Crayons, Cosmos, Efficacy, many more vying for the BJP campaign account.


Other than the heavyweight contenders Cosmos Maya, Crayons, Moving Pixels, Vishista VFX and Thought Blurb Communications are also in the fray for the party's business.


Over 50 percent of the total AdEx will go to digital medium, said experts. 

As per the Meta Ad Library Report, between January 11, 2024 and February 9, 2024,BJP has spent a total of Rs 1.5 crore. Of this, Rs 1.18 crore was spent in the last week alone. The spending on Google ads is even more; according to the Google Ads Transparency centre, political ad spends in the last 30 days stood at Rs 24.5 crore, with the BJP taking the lead by investing Rs 12.4 crore.


The disclosed numbers on Meta and Google are significantly higher than expenditures on the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. What is being spent in a month now was the total spend of almost one quarter back in 2019.


<a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/how-it-works/2024-election-bjp-far-ahead-of-congress-not-just-in-pre-poll-surveys-but-also-in-this-key-matrix-22871.htm">Also read: The BJP has boosted its political AdEx on social media significantly, splurging Rs1.5 crore in the last month</a>


Between February 2019 and May 2019, Google and Facebook reported a combined political ad expenditure of approximately Rs 58 crore. Google disclosed 12,276 political ads amounting to Rs. 29.3 crore in four months, while Facebook’s India Ad Library declared a total of 132,419 ads valued at Rs 29.28 crore.


As per a recent dentsu report, the Indian advertising industry grew by 8.6 percent in 2023 and is expected to grow by 9 percent to reach Rs 1,01,591 crore by the end of 2024. This upward trajectory is attributed to key events this year which includes the elections. 

In 2023, government advertising spends have grown by 62.2 percent over 2022, said the report. 


At the release of a report on India’s AdEx, Prasanth Kumar, CEO, GroupM South Asia said, “Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, we remain optimistic about the industry. At 10.2 percent India will be the fastest growing top market. 2024 will also see an upside from the spends leading to the General Elections. Digital, particularly retail media and digital extensions of TV are expected to drive the growth.”

General Elections 2024: Political parties to spend up to Rs 13,000 crore on advertising

ADEX