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The next era belongs to India - and to AI: Sir Martin Sorrell maps the future of advertising
Sir Martin Sorrell, Founder and Executive Chairman, S4Capital/Monks dissected the forces reshaping global media, technology, and marketing — from tariffs layered on top of geopolitical fault lines to the existential challenge AI poses for agency business models.
On media buying, he repeated his call for open-book practices. “You must run an open book. It’s remarkable that in this day and age, many clients still don’t know what they’re paying in certain markets like Japan. Dentsu and Hakuhodo, for instance, aren’t transparent on pricing.”
Sir Martin Sorrell has seen the advertising industry weather recessions, reinventions, and revolutions in technology. At 80, the S4 Capital founder remains as sharp and as provocative as ever. In a wide-ranging conversation with Storyboard18, Sir Martin Sorrell, Founder and Executive Chairman, S4Capital/Monks discusses the forces reshaping global media, technology, and marketing — from tariffs layered on top of geopolitical fault lines to the existential challenge AI poses for agency business models. He argued that growth will be harder to find in a fragmented, slower world economy, making markets like India disproportionately important, while efficiency and transparency will decide which players survive.
Speaking candidly on the Omnicom–IPG merger, WPP’s leadership troubles, and the rise of AI-driven content and media buying, Sorrell didn’t mince words: brainpower, not discounts, will define the next era.
Edited excerpts:
There’s a lot of noise around tariffs and trade friction. How do you see this reshaping global media and marketing supply chains, especially in the Indian context?
Tariffs are layered on top of bigger geopolitical issues like US–China relations, Russia’s objectives, and Iran’s activities in the Middle East. These three issues are extremely difficult to deal with, despite what leaders may say. When you add tariffs, you get tremendous uncertainty.
For the next few years, the world will look very different from the last 30–40 years of relatively peaceful free trade, growth above 3%, low inflation, and low interest rates. Now we are looking at slower growth, higher inflation, higher rates, and a fragmented world.
In that environment, finding growth becomes harder, which makes markets like India much more attractive. At the same time, efficiency and effectiveness are critical — AI, quantum computing, blockchain, and the metaverse will be vital tools. Simply put, companies must be selective about which markets they enter and be super-efficient everywhere they operate.
What does this mean for Indian advertisers? Will it be more challenging for them, or does it present new opportunities?
The backdrop for India is extremely strong. GDP growth of 5–6%, being the fifth largest economy, and favorable demographics compared to China give India an advantage. The big challenge is infrastructure — both physical and digital. Delhi and Mumbai, for instance, are already under huge strain. Productivity will be affected if infrastructure doesn’t keep up with growth.
Regulators in India and globally are tightening scrutiny on media buying transparency and influencer marketing. How should agency groups rethink their contracts and business models to stay ahead?
Media planning and buying is a trillion-dollar industry — $700 billion digital, growing 10–20%, and $300 billion conventional, contracting up to 15% unless you have live sports.
You must run an open book. It’s remarkable that in this day and age, many clients still don’t know what they’re paying in certain markets like Japan. Dentsu and Hakuhodo, for instance, aren’t transparent on pricing.
At S4 we only buy digital — $5–6 billion of inventory from Google, Meta, Amazon, Tencent, TikTok, ByteDance, etc. — and do it on a transparent basis, charging a fee. The holding companies are now trying “proprietary media buying on an open basis,” which is really “transparently untransparent.” I don’t think it will last. In an era of blockchain and AI, supply chains will be shortened and exposed, making hidden volume discounts a thing of the past.
Clients will pay for brainpower, not discounts.
Omnicom’s acquisition of IPG and the layoffs across WPP have rattled the industry. If you are a client or talent inside these groups, what should you realistically expect on pricing, service, and job stability?
Omnicom–IPG is a cost-cutting merger, not about growth. We’ve already seen retention bonuses shrink from a year to six months — that signals churn. With 127,500 staff pre-deal, I doubt more than 110,000–115,000 will remain. It’s about cost savings, not revenue synergies.
Here in India, both groups have strong representation — IPG in creative (FCB, McCann), Omnicom in media and creative. Integration will be messy, with client and talent churn for at least two years.
WPP is different — it’s about poor leadership and brand mismanagement. Iconic names like Thomson, Ogilvy, Y&R, Wonderman, even AKQA, have been humbled. Putting Gray under Ogilvy — when Gray’s biggest client was P&G and Ogilvy’s was Unilever — was a disastrous move. It sends shivers through CMOs.
The macro environment is hard enough, but add in AI disruption, and the agency model must change. Time-based fees won’t survive when AI compresses production cycles. Agencies must pivot to output-based models.
Overall, only Publicis and Havas are showing growth. The rest are struggling
WPP recently appointed a new global CEO from Microsoft. Does this signal a pivot toward tech-driven leadership? What’s your reading of this change?
It remains to be seen. The problem isn’t structure, but leadership and brand degradation. Cindy Rose, now CEO, faces the tough task of cutting a new direction after years of weakening strong brands.
My view is WPP should be broken up. The argument for an integrated whole doesn’t hold up — specialization is more valuable in today’s market. Motivation within WPP has collapsed, and fixing that will be difficult. Collapsing brands like JWT, Wunderman, Y&R into VML doesn’t help. Outside of Kansas City (and maybe Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce), who knows VML?
Clients value brand strength. Breaking up the group would free units to thrive individually.
Speaking of S4 Capital, after performance resets as well as acquisitions and new bets, how are you restoring momentum and client confidence?
Our tech-based client relationships — Alphabet, Amazon, T-Mobile, Disney, Netflix, GM, General Mills — are very strong. We’ve been voted AI Agency of the Year by Ad Age and Innovation Partner of the Year by The One Club.
Yes, tech companies are spending more on CapEx and less on advertising, so it hasn’t been easy. But our four strengths — purely digital, data-driven, faster-better-cheaper with AI, and our unitary structure — position us well.
For example, a commercial that would take four months and cost $2.5 million, we can now deliver in 4–6 weeks at $500,000 using AI. That’s a concrete case of how our model is more competitive than the holding companies.
As an investor and builder, what are your biggest bets in marketing, media, and tech over the next five years?
Over the next five years, I’m betting strongly on five areas where I believe AI will completely reshape the industry. The first is visualization and copywriting, where generative tools are already collapsing timelines and costs for creative production. The second is personalization at scale — what I often describe as a “Netflix model on steroids” — where first-party data can be harnessed to deliver highly individualized content and experiences. The third is media planning and buying, which I expect to become entirely algorithmic, replacing the manual work of thousands of planners in the same way portfolio allocation in the investment industry has moved to algorithms.
Alongside this, I see AI driving radical efficiency improvements, and we’re already seeing some staggering results in India through projects that have streamlined operations at a scale traditional methods couldn’t match. Finally, I believe one of the most transformative shifts will be the democratization of knowledge within organizations. AI has the ability to collapse silos and make information widely accessible, much like how Jensen Huang at NVIDIA manages 51 direct reports by relying on clear KPIs rather than layers of bureaucracy.
Right now, the areas showing the most traction are visualization, personalization, and algorithmic media planning, but together these five bets capture the direction in which the entire industry is heading.
Some say AI will destroy creativity. Do you agree?
No, it enhances it. Strategic and creative thinking remain vital, but now we add data-driven insight and technology to execute faster and better.
Clients today spend more than 10% of media cost on creative — higher than when agencies were paid 15% for both media and creative. With AI, that ratio should fall significantly, especially in a world of slower growth, higher costs, and scarcer opportunities.
SPOTLIGHT
Big-ticket buying decisions now demand more than just logic and product specs – they require trust, emotional connection, and brand stories that resonate.
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