Brand Marketing
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Supreme Court GST verdict could erase ₹2,000 crore from India’s Ad market
The stakes are especially high for some of India’s top advertisers, including Dream11, My11Circle (Games24x7), WinZO, Zupee, A23, Junglee Rummy, and MPL, all of whom have been among the most aggressive spenders across multiple mediums
Industry players warn that an adverse ruling could cripple the Real Money Gaming (RMG) industry, leading to a collapse in marketing budgets and a direct hit of nearly ₹2,000 crore in advertising expenditure (AdEx).
The Supreme Court’s impending verdict on a landmark Goods and Services Tax (GST) dispute—pegged at a staggering ₹2.5 lakh crore—has the potential to trigger one of the most severe economic shocks to India’s advertising sector in recent years. Industry players warn that an adverse ruling could cripple the Real Money Gaming (RMG) industry, leading to a collapse in marketing budgets and a direct hit of nearly ₹2,000 crore in advertising expenditure (AdEx).
The stakes are especially high for some of India’s top advertisers, including Dream11, My11Circle (Games24x7), WinZO, Zupee, A23, Junglee Rummy, and MPL, all of whom have been among the most aggressive spenders across television, OTT, and digital platforms—particularly during marquee sporting events like IPL 2024–25.
According to Nikhil Kumar, Chief Growth Officer at mediasmart (an Affle company), RMG currently accounts for 2.8–3.7% of India’s total advertising pie, a relatively modest share but one with exceptional growth momentum driven by mobile adoption, digital payments, and a rising gaming culture in tier-2 and tier-3 markets.
“While RMG ad spends are still mid-single-digit as a percentage of the total market, the growth trajectory is compelling,” Kumar said. “However, policy shocks like a 28% GST are already squeezing margins, forcing companies to rethink their acquisition spends and shift towards performance-led campaigns.”
Industry estimates peg India’s total ad market in 2024 at USD 15–18 billion (₹1.25–1.5 lakh crore), with digital commanding nearly half—a leap fueled by a mobile-first audience, booming e-commerce, and growing connected device usage.
Vipul Kedia, COO of India and Emerging Markets at Affle, said RMG brands are “predominantly digital-first,” with the lion’s share of spending flowing to Meta, Google, programmatic DSPs, connected TV, OEM platforms, and in-app advertising for precision targeting and measurable performance.
Ambika Sharma, Founder of Pulp Strategy, noted that RMG has been “one of the fastest growing categories in Indian AdEx over the last few years,” contributing 6–8% of overall digital spends. In FY25, the sector’s ad spending grew 15–18% year-on-year, driven by aggressive customer acquisition and retention efforts.
Sharma said, "Real Money Gaming has been one of the fastest growing categories in Indian AdEx over the last few years, contributing roughly 6 to 8 percent of overall digital ad spends. The majority, close to 75 percent, goes to digital platforms with heavy focus on performance-led spends across Meta, Google, programmatic, and influencer marketing. Television, especially sports and live events, still takes around 20 percent, with the remainder on outdoor and radio for regional reach."
In FY25, RMG AdEx has grown by an estimated 15 to 18 percent over FY24, driven by aggressive customer acquisition and retention campaigns. The category targets sports content, gaming communities, regional entertainment, and high-engagement OTT inventory for its strong conversion potential. Sharma added.
Yasin Hamidani, Director, Media Care Brand Solutions said, "RMG leans into Digital for precision targeting, fast optimization, LTV-based bidding, and compliance gating (now including Meta). TV/OTT are used for credibility and mass reach—especially around cricket where category salience peaks. OOH/Radio support city-level performance pushes and festival bursts. This balance reflects policy opening on social plus TAM’s evidence of seasonal TV spikes."
Hamidani states that indicatively: 65–80% Digital (Meta/Google, affiliates, influencers/programmatic) given targeting/attribution; 15–25% TV/OTT (concentrated around cricket/elections for scale/trust); 5–10% OOH/Radio (regional bursts, app installs, KYC reminders). Mix has tilted further to Meta after policy changes; TV surges during IPL. Figures are industry estimates synthesizing policy and seasonal data.
Yet, experts fear the growth story could be abruptly cut short. The category’s spends spike sharply during cricket seasons—particularly IPL—where it accounted for ~18% of ad volume in the “E-comm-Gaming” segment on TV. “If the Supreme Court delivers an adverse verdict, the fallout won’t just hurt gaming companies—it will send shockwaves across television, OTT, and digital platforms, drying up one of the most aggressive ad-spending categories,” experts warned.
With the verdict now reserved, India’s advertising and gaming industries are bracing for impact. A ruling against the sector could leave a ₹2,000 crore-sized crater in the nation’s AdEx, affecting broadcasters, digital platforms, and the entire marketing value chain.
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