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E-commerce and quick commerce ad spends steady after GST relief, but festive season will test sentiment
The absence of big-spending real-money gaming advertisers has created a structural shift on quick commerce platforms, leaving cheaper inventory on the table and making it easier for other brands to buy media space.
During festive periods, there is always a jump in ad spend because companies want to acquire more customers. That continues to be true, driven by both quick commerce platforms and the brands, as per experts.
The GST Council’s move to simplify rates and bring most goods under 5 and 18 percent slabs has given India’s e-commerce and quick commerce players a compliance breather and some room to pass savings to customers. But despite expectations of stronger consumption, industry watchers say the reform will not trigger a sharp reset in advertising strategies.
Instead, the real contest will play out during the festive season, where consumer sentiment — not tax policy will decide how aggressively platforms like Amazon, Flipkart, Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy push their campaigns.
Ad mix unlikely to shift drastically
Satish Meena, founder at Datum Intelligence, doesn’t expect brands to overhaul their media mix. “There is already some budget allocation happening for influencers, but brands are cutting it down slowly. The returns are limited, and influencers are becoming expensive. Brands are relying more on UGC, which makes more sense for them, along with standard awareness campaigns.”
According to him, brands will continue to run a few large ad campaigns but focus on expanding reach instead of adding more influencers into the ecosystem.
Consumption up, but ad intensity steady
Meena also pointed out that while GST cuts make products cheaper, household spending patterns remain range-bound. “GST changes are not going to affect platforms directly, it’s more on consumption. Many categories sold on quick commerce have seen GST decline from 12 percent to 5 percent or even nil. So consumption will increase. Customers will buy more because of better prices, which will be passed on to them.”
But he cautioned against expecting a spending surge. “A quick commerce dark store delivers to maybe 2,000 households in an area. Household spending doesn’t change dramatically month to month. If you are spending Rs 10,000 on groceries, it may move to Rs 12,000 or Rs 8,000, but it stays range-bound. With GST benefits, there will be an uptick, but not a huge jump in ad spend.”
The real lift, he added, comes during festivals. “During festive periods, there is always a jump in ad spend because companies want to acquire more customers. That continues to be true, driven by both quick commerce platforms and the brands.”
Locked-in budgets and cost-saving narratives
On the e-commerce side, Meena said most of this year’s marketing spends are already committed. “Most marketing allocations — around 80 percent are already locked in. Brands have already decided on the properties and media programming they wanted.”
Instead, the focus will shift toward communicating value to consumers. “What we will see now is a focus on highlighting cost savings for customers due to GST. The messaging will be: this is the best time to purchase, because A) there are festival discounts, and B) there are GST benefits. The focus will shift from acquiring new customers to ensuring existing customers perceive this as a high-value moment to spend. You can expect new creatives and ad campaigns built around that.”
Inventory dynamics and the absence of gaming advertisers
Meena also flagged a structural shift. “This period is always when big players spend the most. But in my view, the bigger change is the absence of real-money gaming companies, who used to spend heavily. That money is gone, which means inventory is now cheaper. For some brands, that makes it easier to buy.”
He noted that D2C companies are also stepping up investments — but with a narrower focus. “They don’t invest much in TV or print — their focus is on digital performance marketing. They will ramp up spending on Amazon, Flipkart, quick commerce platforms, Facebook, and Google Search, because that’s where most of their traffic comes from.”
“A sigh of relief” but not a big spike
Ankur Bisen, Senior Partner, The Knowledge Company, agreed that GST’s direct impact on ad budgets will be muted. “It’s more a rationalization of a process that was complicated. So there is a sigh of relief as far as companies are concerned for the ease of compliance and a little bit of money coming into their pockets.”
He added that most categories are now aligned within slabs, so competition dynamics remain unchanged. “Most categories have moved into one slab, so if somebody is competing with another brand, they are in the same category. As far as marketing budgets are concerned, nothing changes.”
Instead, he believes consumer sentiment will be the bigger driver. “What does change is that consumers now have a little extra money in their pockets. How they react to it — whether they spend immediately on those items, plan their purchases, or suspend purchases is largely driven by overall sentiment.”
Quick commerce: small base, selective impact
On restrictions around real-money gaming ads on quick commerce, Bisen stressed perspective. “Quick commerce, while large, is still small in the overall scheme of the consumption basket. If you look at the big FMCG majors and see how much comes from quick commerce, it’s about 10 percent, 15 percent, maybe 20 percent. That’s about it.”
He said most FMCG marketing is still driven by local activations. “A large part of their marketing campaign is still driven by local activations, involving distributors and engaging retailers. It’s a multi-channel marketing approach.”
For niche or urban-focused brands, however, the impact may be sharper. “Brands that are heavily dependent on quick commerce or cater to urban consumption in select clusters — such as niche or differentiated players chasing a targeted audience where visibility is high — may feel the impact. But for the broader consumption market, the effect remains limited.”
Festive season sentiment will decide
Looking ahead, Bisen said the festive season will remain the key litmus test. “For the festive season, the right way to look at it is from a like-to-like perspective — last year versus this year rather than comparing the current period to the festive season, which can be misleading.”
He added, “Festive season demand always spikes. The real question is whether this year’s spike will match or exceed last year’s, and that depends largely on consumer sentiment. The key is to gauge if consumers remain in a positive mood. Right now, with floods in North India and several pessimistic microeconomic factors at play, people are simply trying to get by and that context matters more.”
Digital acceleration continues
Somdutta Singh, Founder and CEO of Assiduus Global, underlined that with GST rationalization making products cheaper, festive demand is expected to climb 15–20 percent. “Ad spending is also set to rise by around 10–12 percent overall, with digital advertising climbing even higher at 15–18 percent. All signs point to brands putting more money into digital and performance channels so they can capture attention while buyers are more willing to spend.”
She noted that while advertising services continue to be taxed at 18 percent, brands are not backing off. “Digital ad spends are expected to grow, and many companies are prepared to absorb those costs because they see the surge in sales balancing it out. Cutting performance marketing just doesn’t make sense right now.”
Singh also warned that smaller sellers may face compliance friction. “Larger platforms like Amazon and Flipkart are already working closely with brands to handle compliance and manage sales planning. Smaller D2C players, on the other hand, run the risk of billing mismatches and compliance issues slowing them down.”
Efficiency over intensity
Ambika Sharma, Founder and Chief Strategist of Pulp Strategy, predicted more fine-tuning of spends. “Quick commerce thrives on performance-heavy digital spends, but I expect players to rebalance with more influencer-led and affiliate strategies where acquisition costs can be lower and more community driven. Organic discovery and loyalty programs will get more attention.”
She added that campaigns will still be aggressive, but smarter. “The blitzes will not go away, but the intensity may be adjusted. Brands will be more selective about when they flood the market, focusing on peak consumption windows and category moments rather than continuous bursts. Efficiency will be the new watchword.”
Smaller brands, Sharma warned, may be squeezed hardest. “Larger platforms with deep pockets will continue spending, while smaller D2C and quick commerce brands may struggle to sustain high ad intensity. This divergence could widen the gap in visibility and accelerate consolidation.”
SPOTLIGHT
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