India to drive 6% of global trade growth after US and China: DHL trade atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas also finds that the center of gravity of world trade has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world’s major geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change observed in Asian economies.
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DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. The report reveals that Asia’s trade outlook remains positive, mirroring global trade, which is forecast to grow faster over the next five years compared to the preceding decade. In fact, a few countries in Asia – India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines – are expected to see especially strong growth. The South Asia as well as Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms of trade growth.
"As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it's clear how trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” said Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express. “However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the global business environment. As businesses diversify supply chains, it is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in seeking out new routes to growth.”
Commenting on India’s growing role in global trade, R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express said, “The Trade Atlas underlines India's rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the east and west. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy's general volatility. Furthermore, South Asia is expected to grow its trade volume faster than any other region between 2024 and 2029, providing an excellent opportunity for its economies and businesses to improve their global stature." New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines Between 2024 and 2029, four countries in Asia are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In the next five years, India is anticipated to retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%. Additionally, India may also deliver 6% of the world’s trade growth, behind China (12%) and the United States (10%). The prospects of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are bright as they have displayed substantial potential to benefit from supply chain shifts and diversification strategies. Vietnam is expected to maintain a 6.5% compound annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024-2029 period and promote one position to rank fifth on the scale dimension. Indonesia is predicted to retain 12th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33rd to 25th in the speed rankings. More notably, the Philippines is set to leap 114 positions to rank 15th on the speed dimension, and rise from 68th to 30th on the scale dimension.
South Asia and ASEAN to produce faster growth rates than other regions South Asia and the ASEAN regions are forecasted to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with CAGR of 5.6% and 5.0%, respectively. In fact, trade growth is also expected to accelerate substantially compared to the previous five-year period in these regions. Other regions such as North America and Europe are forecast to grow at rates of 2.7%.
The DHL Trade Atlas also finds that the center of gravity of world trade has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world’s major geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change observed in Asian economies. Between 2000 and 2024, the share of world trade borne by South & Central Asia rose from 2% to 5%. However, a major region like Europe saw its share of world trade decrease from 41% to 36% for the same period. New record in long-distance trade as Asia becomes central to global production networks Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 demonstrates that trade has not become more regionalized overall. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers, compared to just over 4,500 kilometers in 2000. This long – run trend can be attributed to Europe and North America increasingly trading with Asia, as “Factory Asia” becomes central to global production networks.
Faster global trade growth compared to the previous decade Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace. “While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “While the U.S. could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the U.S. down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
