India's mass consumers to accelerate $300 billion e-commerce boom by 2030: Redseer

The differentiated shopping habits of mass consumers, along with their increasing digital shopping penetration, makes mass consumers an attractive cohort for e-commerce platforms. As of 2022, India has 65-70 million households transacting on e-commerce platforms monthly, which is projected to go up to 120-130 million by 2030, with mass consumers contributing to 80 percent of the incremental transacting households. In terms of GMV contribution as well, mass consumers are projected to drive 45 percent of the $300 billion e-commerce GMV by 2030, contributing to $135 billion in GMV.

Here are the key highlights from the report:

In a detailed survey conducted across Metros, Tier 1, and Tier 2 plus cities with the target group involving Gen-Z, millennials, and Gen-X shoppers, Redseer discovered shopping patterns of different consumer cohorts and shed light on predominant purchase factors.

As the report puts it, the ‘affluent’ consumers on the survey are a cohort with an average annual income greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The ‘mass’ consumers make between Rs 2.5-10 lakhs annually, while the ‘strivers’ are a third cohort who earn less than Rs 2.5 lakhs a year.

Breaking down the cohort by demographics, Redseer analysts found that 75 percent of the mass consumers comprised of millennials and Gen-Z consumers.

While Gen-Z, who are young and independent, show purchase preference for apparel, BPC, and electronics, the value-driven independent millennials tilted towards BPC, food and grocery, and apparel.

Gen-X constituted about 13 percent and spent a higher share on food and grocery, followed by health and wellness.

Although Gen-Z consumers have distinct characteristics from older generations, they are also value-conscious at the core, the report adds.

The report projected that growth in India’s retail market would play out differently across these consumer cohorts in the coming decade, with the mass consumers expected to lead spending on the Indian retail market.

As of 2022, mass consumers constitute 53 percent of the Indian retail market, valued at $ 950 billion. According to Redseer’s projections, this share is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12 percent to touch 65 percent by 2030, making it a $1.3 trillion opportunity for brands and businesses. The remainder of the projected $2 trillion retail market value is expected to be occupied by strivers and affluent consumers, growing at a CAGR of 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Examining the themes playing out across consumer cohorts, Redseer found that online wallet share expansion will be the key theme playing out amongst mass consumers led by their high value consciousness across categories and the increasing use of the internet across their purchase decision making journey, wherein, mass consumers are almost as online savvy as affluent consumers.

These consumers are comfortable with technology, willing to try new products/brands, are increasingly shopping online across categories, can afford products available on e-commerce websites, and are adopting digital payments for smoother transactions. Redseer’s survey results suggest that 70 percent of mass consumers have increased their shopping frequency on e-commerce platforms in the last one year.

The top three decision drivers while making purchases included prices/deals and discounts on e-commerce platforms, quality of products, and the trust on the platform. Further, the survey indicated that 60 percent of mass consumers were open to purchasing unbranded products if they liked the quality, while 30 percent of mass consumers preferred unbranded over branded products.

According to the Redseer report, within the $ 15-20 billion mass e-commerce segment (in 2022), 60-70 percent of the sales was led by large horizontals. While the rest 30-40 percent of sales was led by players who had a specific focus on solving for and expanding the mass consumer segment – this includes platforms like Meesho (which grew by focusing on better regional and local selection and pricing) along with verticals platforms like Purplle (BPC category) and then the longer tail of smaller verticals and horizontals.

The mass consumer driven offline retail market has also seen a few successful business models. Amongst offline retailers, there is Zudio (in fashion) which has outperformed the industry over the past 3 years, along with other players like DMart, Reliance Trends, VMart, amongst others across the categories.