Global smartphone shipments set to grow 6.2% in 2024, reveals IDC report

Worldwide smartphone shipments are projected to increase by 6.2% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to the latest report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. As per the report, this growth follows two years of significant declines and is largely driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades.

Despite this rebound, growth is expected to moderate in the coming years, with 2.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028. Factors such as increased smartphone penetration, longer device refresh cycles, and the expanding market for used smartphones are expected to contribute to the slowdown.

Talking about the report, Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director at IDC, said, "Although Generative AI (GenAI) remains a key focus for many vendors, it has yet to significantly drive demand or spur early upgrades. We believe GenAI will eventually transform the user experience, but more investment is required to raise consumer awareness and establish a ‘must-have’ feature that would prompt consumers to rush to purchase. For now, we expect GenAI to initially appear in premium flagship devices, gradually expanding to lower price tiers, eventually making up 70% of the smartphone market by 2028."

A major driver of the 6.2% global growth in 2024 is the 7.6% year-over-year expansion of the Android market, particularly in regions such as Asia Pacific (APeJC), Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and China. This growth is primarily in low-end devices.

Meanwhile, iOS is anticipated to see more modest growth of just 0.4% in 2024. While Apple has achieved record-breaking performance in emerging markets like India, it continues to face challenges in larger markets such as China, the US, and Europe. Looking to 2025, IDC forecasts iOS to outpace Android, with expected growth of 3.1% compared to Android's 1.7% increase.

In the foldable phone segment, IDC noted that while new foldable models continue to generate buzz, their market share remains relatively small. Despite a 7.4% decline in foldable shipments in Q3 2024, IDC forecasts a 10.5% year-over-year growth for foldables in 2024, maintaining a double-digit growth trajectory through 2028, with a five-year CAGR of 15.9%. However, the growth rate is beginning to slow as Chinese vendors, who have driven much of this segment’s growth, shift their focus and investments towards GenAI-powered smartphones.