Global Ad Trends 2025: Retail media and smart TVs join big tech in fight for TV dollars
Analysts forecast that CTV will represent over 40% of global TV ad investment by 2030, though adoption remains uneven, with the US leading, while markets like France and Germany lag behind at closer to 10%.
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The shape of television is being rapidly redrawn as audiences migrate from traditional broadcast to connected TV (CTV) platforms, forcing advertisers to rethink definitions, strategies, and budgets, according to WARC Media’s latest Global Ad Trends report.
Between 2014 and 2024, global linear TV advertising spend fell by 27.5% in absolute terms and by over 50% when adjusted for inflation. Once the dominant medium, linear TV now accounts for just 12.4% of global ad investment, a sharp decline from 41.3% in 2013. Despite this, linear still commands more than three-quarters of TV ad dollars worldwide, reflecting its enduring role in live sports, mass reach, and brand-building.
Meanwhile, CTV has emerged as television’s growth engine, now responsible for nearly half of all TV viewing hours in the US. Platforms like Netflix, Amazon, and broadcasters such as ITV, RTL, and TF1 are reporting double-digit growth in digital ad revenues, with Netflix projected to earn $3 billion from ads this year and Amazon’s CTV revenue estimated at twice that. Analysts forecast that CTV will represent over 40% of global TV ad investment by 2030, though adoption remains uneven, with the US leading, while markets like France and Germany lag behind at closer to 10%.
The shift has sparked fierce competition for TV ad dollars. YouTube, now watched more on TV screens than mobile in the US, declared itself “the new TV,” capturing a record 12.8% of total US TV viewing in June 2025, more than any single broadcaster or streamer. Retail media players such as Amazon and Walmart are leveraging their platforms to merge commerce with TV advertising, while smart TV makers are using their operating systems to create new ad-funded channels.
Yet the transformation is far from straightforward. Advertisers face challenges of fragmentation, frequency management, and measurement gaps. Unlike linear TV, where reach and exposure were central, today’s buyers demand outcome-based proof. “CTV has become the cornerstone of video planning, while linear TV now plays a supporting role,” notes Denise Ocasio, Executive Director of Investment at Mindshare.
For smaller brands, the rise of programmatic CTV is lowering barriers to entry. Campaigns can now be run with budgets in the tens of thousands of dollars, opening TV to performance-driven advertisers previously reliant on search and social. Still, definitional disputes persist: is YouTube TV, a MrBeast channel, or a smart TV OEM app “television”? Industry silos between linear buyers and digital specialists complicate planning further.
The creative playbook is also evolving. Shoppable overlays, QR codes, and interactive features are being tested, while traditional 30-second spots are no longer default. Retail data integration promises greater precision, enabling campaigns to link exposure directly to sales, but fragmentation across platforms undermines consistency.
The report highlights that while audiences no longer distinguish between linear, streaming, or social video, advertisers must grapple with these categories to manage budgets effectively. As WARC’s analysts conclude, the next decade of TV advertising will be defined by a balance between reach and precision, broadcast traditions and digital reinvention, and the integration of retail data with creative innovation.
