US-India trade deal calms outsourcing curbs concerns for Indian IT and GCCs

The US-India trade deal has helped ease concerns that outsourcing to India could face tighter restrictions, relieving a strategic uncertainty that had quietly slowed decision-making among US enterprises over the past year.

Although the finer details of the agreement are yet to be made public, analysts said the announcement has brought clarity to corporate boardrooms assessing long-term technology partnerships with India. Gaurav Parab, principal research analyst at NelsonHall, told Moneycontrol that uncertainty around the bilateral relationship over the past year had created behind-the-scenes hesitation around new investments in IT sourcing and, in some cases, led to slower decisions on outsourcing commitments. He added that the announcement signals greater alignment and continuity, which should help reduce that reluctance.

From an India-specific perspective, the deal removes uncertainty for the $283-billion IT industry and eases concerns that had begun to affect US enterprises’ confidence around data sovereignty, political alignment and India’s access to emerging technologies. Ray Wang, founder and principal analyst at Constellation Research, told Moneycontrol that while tariffs do not directly affect IT services, they influence customer sentiment, and lower tariffs along with policy certainty help budgets and the overall business climate.

Relief for sentiment, not an immediate growth trigger

Industry experts cautioned that the trade deal should not be seen as an immediate driver of revenue or margin expansion for Indian IT services firms. Instead, its primary impact is on boardroom confidence and long-term strategic positioning.

Phil Fersht, chief executive of HFS Research, said the clarity helps Indian IT firms in senior-level discussions even if it does not immediately alter deal economics. He added that if the agreement signals a broader reset in US-India economic cooperation, it strengthens India’s position as a strategic technology partner rather than merely a low-cost delivery destination. Fersht noted that this supports longer-term growth in engineering, artificial intelligence services and platform-led work, but will not lead to a sudden acceleration in near-term revenues.

GCC plans move off pause

The reduction in trade-related anxiety is expected to have a more immediate impact on Global Capability Centres. US enterprises that already operate GCCs in India, as well as those considering setting up new centres, had adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid earlier trade friction.

Sameer Dhanrajani, chief executive of AI advisory and consulting firm AIQRATE, said US enterprises with existing Indian GCCs and those planning new centres are likely to fast-track their engagements and expansion due to the emerging clarity. He added that renewed momentum would also reinforce India’s role in higher-value technology work rather than purely cost-driven delivery.

Political noise eases, confidence returns

The trade announcement is also being viewed as a step towards reducing the political and cultural friction that had created discomfort for Indian technology firms and professionals operating in the US. While this remains a longer-term issue, analysts see the deal as the start of a gradual normalisation in sentiment towards Indian IT and global delivery models.

Parab further said the announcement could mark the beginning of a steady improvement in perceptions of Indian IT and outsourcing-led operating models. Beyond outsourcing, the agreement reassures US technology companies that India will continue to purchase and deploy US-origin cloud, data centre and AI technologies rather than shifting towards a largely indigenous technology stack.

This continuity is seen as supportive for Indian IT services firms and GCCs that design, deploy and manage such platforms. Pareekh Jain, chief executive and lead analyst at EIIRTrend, said the deal represents a positive sentiment shift for the Indian IT industry, including GCCs, adding that US clients had been hesitant to announce large deals and GCC investments due to trade relations, but that India-US trade sentiment is now set to improve.

Jain also highlighted potential downstream opportunities in defence engineering, should increased US defence purchases by India translate into offsets and local engineering and technology work.