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The Trump administration's move to raise H-1B visa fees and expand social media screening for applicants and their dependents is weighing heavily on India's technology outsourcing industry, with new filings dropping to their lowest level in more than a decade.
H-1B application volumes across 18 technology companies, including India's six largest listed IT services firms, several mid-cap players, and two US-headquartered companies, have fallen by more than 77%, according to data exclusively shared with Storyboard18 by talent intelligence firm Xpheno.
The data suggests 2025 is on track to be the weakest year for H-1B applications in over ten years.
Large technology companies have historically dominated the H1-B program, which issues 85,000 visas annually and serves as the main pathway for skilled foreign workers to take up jobs in the US. Bloomberg data showed foreign workers accounted for more than 40% of new H-1B hires approved over the past four years, with Indian nationals forming the largest share.
In 2025, however, the total number of H-1B applications across the tracked firms fell to 8,165. Of these, 248 applications were denied, while approvals remained high at about 97%, according to Xpheno. Over the past decade, between 2015 and 2025, more than 383,000 H-1B applications were approved, compared with nearly 33,000 rejections. Application volume peaked in 2017 and again in 2020, though approval rates varied sharply across those years.
Industry executives say higher visa costs are forcing companies to rethink on-site deployment strategies, particularly for mid-level talent. As a result, firms are becoming more selective, reserving new H-1B filings for niche, high-value, or business-critical roles.
Expanded screening of applicants' social media accounts has added another layer of friction, discouraging several Indian graduates from pursuing roles in the US, industry executives said.
H-1B filings had already declined by 25% to 28% over the past three years. Neeti Sharma, CEO of TeamLease Digital, said longer processing timelines, heavier documentation requirements, and policy uncertainty are likely to push application volumes even lower.
"Companies are increasingly deferring travel, ramping up remote delivery models or hiring locally in the US," Sharma said.
As a result, IT services firms are accelerating a hybrid talent strategy that combines local hiring in the US with remote delivery from India. Internal deployments and conversions from student visas to H-1B status are also expected to rise, executives said.
The shift is also reshaping decisions for Indian students weighing overseas education. Studying in non-US destinations to eventually work in America is becoming a less predictable pathway.
"Employers prefer talent that is locally available and ready to deploy," said Kamal Karanth, co-founder of Xpheno. While studying in Europe or Australia may broaden global exposure, it does not guarantee access to the US job market.
"The typical path is education, followed by local work experience, then employment with a multinational and eventually, an intra-company transfer," Sharma said. "That route still exists, but it is no longer as certain as before".