Union Budget 2025-26: GDP growth rate projected between 6.5 and 6.9 % for FY26, reveals FICCI survey

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has conducted a comprehensive survey ahead of the Union Budget 2025-26, gathering insights from over 150 companies across various sectors. The survey, conducted between late December 2024 and mid-January 2025, highlights a mixed but generally optimistic sentiment within India Inc. as the nation navigates moderating economic growth.

According to the survey, 64 percent of respondents expressed optimism about India's growth prospects, with nearly 60 percent projecting a GDP growth rate between 6.5 and 6.9 percent for FY 2025-26. While this marks a moderation from the over 8 percent growth seen in 2023-24, the figures align with ongoing external challenges.

The survey participants also acknowledged the government’s focus on fiscal consolidation, with 47 percent expecting the fiscal deficit target of 4.9 percent for FY 2024-25 to be met, and another 24 percent anticipating a lower fiscal deficit for the current year.

A significant focus of the survey was on macroeconomic policies, with 68 percent of respondents calling for an increased focus on public capital expenditure (capex) to sustain growth. Industry members are hoping for at least a 15 percent increase in capex allocation for FY 2025-26. Over half of the respondents also emphasised the need for reforms to improve the ease of doing business, particularly in areas like land acquisition, labour regulations and power supply.

However, concerns about muted demand were raised, with many industry members calling for a review of the direct tax structure. Adjusting tax slabs and rates could put more money in people's hands and boost consumption demand, they argued.

On the taxation front, participants emphasised the need for tax certainty, customs duty rationalisation, and simplifying compliance. A majority of respondents (54 percent) supported the idea of an amnesty scheme under customs to expedite dispute resolution.

The survey also highlighted key areas of sectoral focus for the upcoming budget. Respondents called for continued attention to infrastructure, manufacturing (particularly Industry 4.0), and agriculture/rural development. The survey also stressed the importance of supporting MSMEs, with 40 percent of participants urging targeted measures to ensure easier access to credit, new technology adoption, and sustainability.

Additionally, export competitiveness emerged as a priority, with respondents advocating for improved logistics efficiency and the continuation of interest equalisation schemes to enhance India's global trade standing.

Overall, the survey findings reflect a balanced approach to growth, with emphasis on enhancing productivity across key sectors, strengthening the resilience of India’s economy against global challenges, and preparing for long-term economic expansion. Industry leaders are hoping that the upcoming Union Budget will address these concerns and lay the foundation for sustained growth.