ASCI flags risks of Opinion Trading, warns of misleading advertisements
ASCI has observed a surge in promotional activity from both domestic and international platforms, with influencers frequently marketing opinion trading as skill- and knowledge-based gaming.
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The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) has released a whitepaper titled "Examining Opinion Trading in India", bringing much-needed attention to the rapidly growing but largely unregulated sector of opinion trading or prediction markets. The report urges regulatory clarity to address potential financial risks and advertising ethics surrounding these platforms.
According to data cited by the National Initiative for Consumer Interest (NICI), opinion trading platforms currently boast over 50 million users and see transactions exceeding ₹50,000 crore annually. These platforms allow users to place monetary bets on binary outcomes of real-world events, such as sports results or political developments.
Globally, such platforms are regulated either under financial instruments or gambling laws. In India, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued an advisory on April 29, 2025, cautioning the public that opinion trading does not fall under its regulatory purview, as it does not involve trading of securities.
ASCI has observed a surge in promotional activity from both domestic and international platforms, with influencers frequently marketing opinion trading as skill- and knowledge-based gaming. However, the whitepaper warns that many such advertisements could be misleading and amount to pure speculation, posing serious financial risks—especially to young and financially vulnerable users.
The watchdog emphasized the urgent need for regulatory direction. “If such activities are permitted by law, advertising guidelines must be developed to protect consumers. If not, all stakeholders must work to ensure that unlawful advertising is monitored and penalized,” ASCI stated.
ASCI’s whitepaper includes a survey of international advertising self-regulators, revealing a fragmented global regulatory approach. While some countries treat opinion trading as gambling and block such apps, others regulate them as financial instruments under commodity trading laws.
In India, the situation remains murky. During routine ad monitoring, ASCI encountered numerous advertisements from platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and TradeX that allow users to place bets on outcomes such as cricket match results—activities that appear to be speculative in nature.
Some platforms, like Probo, market themselves as skill-based platforms where users make predictions on upcoming events and earn rewards for correct answers. Others, such as SportsBaazi, even allow users to “buy stocks” in players based on performance metrics. Influencers have also been actively promoting such platforms on social media, often claiming they are legal and reliable—despite the absence of clear legal validation.
The state of Chhattisgarh recently banned Probo, SportsBaazi, and TradeX under the Chhattisgarh Gambling Prohibition Act, following a public interest litigation. This move reflects growing concerns around the legal and ethical implications of opinion trading.
Manisha Kapoor, CEO & Secretary General of ASCI, said, “Opinion trading platforms raise serious concerns as their structure and mechanics closely resemble betting in some instances, and can expose consumers to significant financial risk. The advertising that accompanies these platforms often heightens the risk, with exaggerated claims of easy winnings and false assurances of reliability. No disclaimers cautioning consumers are provided. ASCI’s whitepaper highlights these risks and urges urgent regulatory clarity so appropriate steps can be taken to protect consumers from potential harm.”
ASCI plans to escalate any questionable advertising it encounters to the relevant regulators for legal evaluation. The council also emphasized that if opinion trading is legally sanctioned in the future, advertisements must include appropriate disclaimers—similar to those required in the real-money gaming sector.
The whitepaper states, "ASCI plans to escalate all such advertisments that it comes across to the regulators, for them to decide upon the legality of such advertisements. In addition, should the regulator or courts clarify that such advertisements are legally permitted, it is important to maintain the warnings and disclaimers that are required for real money gaming. These are absent in the advertisements that ASCI has come across in its monitoring effort."
ASCI has come across ads of several opinion trading platforms where the gaming format appears to be based on pure speculation, such as predicting the outcome of a live sporting event. Predicting match wins appears to be one of the most common forms of opinion trading.
The report added, that the advertising viewed and analysed there is a sense that these involve an element of risk because there are chances of financial losses. The question of whether these are to be viewed as knowledge or skill based games or games based on pure speculation remains unanswered.
