Breaking: Probo begins layoffs: Founder admits “For 16 yrs, everyone advised against this idea”
While critics dismissed it as betting, Gupta argued that such markets represented a radical leap for finance, likening them to the foundational pillars of stock markets, banking, and insurance, all of which rely on probabilities and forecasting.
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In the wake of India’s newly passed legislation banning online money-based games, Probo co-founders Sachin Gupta and Ashish Garg have bid an emotional farewell to their platform, marking the end of one of the country’s most controversial opinion trading platform. The company has now initated laying off employees.
On Thursday, the Opinion Trading platform Probo shut its business operations in India. The move comes after the government moved towards banning all real money online games in the country. The platform was already reeling under pressure due to Directorate of Enforcement raids and multiple legal cases pending in High Court and apex court.
Probo mentioned on its app, "In light of recent developments, we have paused all recharge activities in your best interest. We request you to withdraw your funds."
Storyboard18 had first reported that Opinion trading platforms will be banned under the new legislation Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill.
Sources indicate that Probo has started laying off employees and many are on notice periods till final process of withdrawals from users, vendor payments, legal obligations and full and final settlements takes place. A source said, "The company is planning to pivot and are laying a new strategy for the Indian market. The company is also planning operations in foreign markets where opinion trading is permissible."
In a media statement, Probo stated, "As unfortunate as it is, we respect the government of India's latest Online Gaming bill. In light of this development, Probo has decided to discontinue its real-money gaming (RMG) operations with immediate effect until further notice. We remain steadfast in our vision to innovate and build information markets from India, for the world."
Sachin Gupta, founder of Probo, took to LinkedIn to reflect on the company’s journey and its eventual closure. “Much has been said about Probo and the online money gaming industry. We fully accept the Government of India’s decision, and though tough for the team, we make our peace with it. For 16 years, almost everyone advised me against this idea—today they seem right. Love to all who cared and still do,” Gupta wrote.
He added, “Still, I must share why we did what we did. This note has long sat in drafts; today feels right to release it—as a Friday read, in hope another dreamer may pick it up over the next 16 years!”
Founded on the idea of “information markets,” Probo offered users tradable “yes/no” contracts based on specific events—ranging from India’s GDP projections to policy outcomes—essentially turning public opinion and forecasts into financial instruments. While critics dismissed it as betting, Gupta argued that such markets represented a radical leap for finance, likening them to the foundational pillars of stock markets, banking, and insurance, all of which rely on probabilities and forecasting.
Gupta positioned information markets as a potential cornerstone of the “information era,” or gyaan-yug, where collective intelligence could deliver accurate, dynamic, and widely accessible forecasts. However, he admitted that despite the vision, the company fell short in execution.
His co-founder, Ashish Garg, shared a more poetic farewell message. “The night is dark and hope burns low, but time will turn, and a new dawn will rise. Thanks to all who supported us and to those who didn't, but made us learn,” Garg wrote.
The closure of Probo highlights the sweeping impact of India’s regulatory clampdown on online gaming and opinion trading platforms, as policymakers tighten controls on activities classified as speculative or betting. For Probo’s founders, the decision marks both an ending and, perhaps, an invitation for future entrepreneurs to reimagine the space.
