Global adex could face 2–4% dip amid Israel–Iran tensions; India emerges as a relative safe haven
Geopolitical shockwaves from West Asia fuel cautious ad spends and media reallocation globally, but India’s strong domestic demand and digital ecosystem could help limit impact to 0.5–1.25% short-term correction, say experts.
ADVERTISEMENT
As geopolitical tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, the ripple effects can be felt across global marketing boardrooms. Advertisers, media planners, and holding companies are recalibrating strategies in response to rising oil prices, supply chain uncertainty, and fragile consumer sentiment, all of which are critical levers influencing global advertising expenditure (adex).
Although a ceasefire has since been announced, industry leaders warn that the psychological impact of such volatility could linger. The global adex, already trimmed from a projected 7% to 6% growth by leading holding firms such as WPP Media, now faces a further potential contraction of 2–4% in the next quarter, should tensions flare again.
“Whenever there’s geopolitical uncertainty, brands pull back discretionary ad spends, especially in globally dependent or energy-sensitive sectors like aviation, logistics, and automotive,” said Prabhakar Tiwari, CEO of FRN Advisory. “We are witnessing a shift toward performance-driven campaigns and contingency-led budgeting, particularly in export-heavy markets.”
Read more: India adex to rise 8.4% to $21.3 billion in 2025, even as global growth slows to 6%: WPP Media
In its 'Mid-Year Global Advertising Forecast' for 2025, WPP Media recently revised the global adex projection downward to 6.0% due to disruptions to global trade and continued deglobalisation pressures weighing on advertising investment, versus its December 2024 forecast that projected 7.7% growth for 2025. Meanwhile, the agency predicted India to witness a growth of 8.4% (from earlier projection of 7%) to reach $21.3 billion by the end of 2025.
"We now expect global advertising revenue to reach $1.08 trillion in 2025, with growth of 6.1% projected for 2026. Our team forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2025 and 2030, lower than the previously projected 6.4% CAGR for 2024–2029," it said.
According to Yasin Hamidani, Director at Media Care Brand Solutions, many multinational brands have already begun revisiting their Q3 and Q4 media plans in volatile regions. “There’s a clear move from long-term brand awareness initiatives to short-term ROI-focused channels. There are conversations happening on campaigns being paused, shortened, or reallocated toward digital and crisis communications, especially targeting Middle East,” he said.
In markets like the Middle East, where brand confidence is closely tied to stable trade and energy flows—, dvertisers are opting for flexibility over fixed commitments. “Shorter buying cycles, real-time optimisation, and a bias for lower-funnel performance media are becoming the new norm,” echoed Ambika Sharma, Founder of Pulp Strategy.
News Viewership Surges, But Not a Long-Term Gain
While rising tensions usually lead to a spike in news consumption—estimated at 15–20% during major geopolitical events—this shift rarely translates into long-term gains for the media ecosystem unless the situation escalates. “In the short term, more advertisers may divert budget to national news channels, especially if a war narrative dominates headlines,” said a senior media planner, “but it’s an opportunistic rather than strategic shift.”
Reliance Retail’s R.S. Sodhi agreed, noting that “the real threat was the prospect of rising fuel prices and inflation, which could have dampened consumer demand and hence ad budgets.” However, with a ceasefire already in place, he believes the worst may have been averted—for now.
India’s Adex: A Beacon of Relative Resilience
Despite the global tremors, India’s advertising market has remained largely insulated. Experts attribute this to robust domestic consumption, a strong digital advertising backbone, and the upcoming festive season in H2 2025, which promises to bolster brand activity across e-commerce, retail, BFSI, and personal care sectors.
“India’s adex might see a minor correction of 0.5–1.25% in the short term, mostly in oil-linked categories,” said Tiwari, “but overall momentum remains intact.” Several experts echoed that sentiment, calling India a "relative safe haven" for media investments.
“While global marketers are hitting pause elsewhere, we’re seeing quiet re-weighting of budgets in favor of high-growth, consumption-led economies like India,” said Shradha Agarwal, Global CEO of Grapes Worldwide. “It’s not a flood of capital, but a strategic rebalancing that acknowledges India’s economic and digital maturity.”
Still, brands are approaching with caution. The threat of contagion, particularly if oil prices rise further or the conflict expands, continues to weigh on media investment decisions.
“Nobody wants to commit large budgets in uncertain times, even in stable markets,” noted Hamidani. “But India is uniquely positioned with its large domestic audience and policy predictability. That gives it an edge.”
For now, holding companies are watching margins, oil prices, and consumer sentiment closely. If calm holds in West Asia, global adex may stabilise by late Q3. If not, brands are prepared to pivot quickly- cutting discretionary campaigns, doubling down on performance metrics, and refocusing on markets where growth is still feasible.
In a nutshell, the Israel–Iran conflict may not have triggered a full-blown media crisis, but it has injected enough uncertainty into the global advertising economy to spark strategic resets.
