India’s ad market set for 4.6% rise in 2025; Big techs dominate global $1.19 trillion spend: WARC

India’s advertising market is projected to grow 4.6% to $13.8 billion in 2025, underscoring the country’s steady rise as one of the world’s fastest-expanding emerging ad economies. The momentum, according to a latest study, is expected to strengthen further through 2026 and 2027.

India is on track for a 4.6% rise to $13.8bn this year, with growth accelerating to 8.0% in 2026 and 9.7% in 2027.

Meanwhile, global advertising spend is projected to jump 8.9% to $1.19 trillion in 2025, marking a significant upgrade of 1.5 percentage points from WARC Media’s September forecast.

The surge is powered by stronger-than-expected results from Big Tech platforms and a surprisingly minimal impact of new trade tariffs on global commerce, according to WARC’s latest Global Ad Trends: Media’s New Normal report.

The growth trajectory remains steep: WARC forecasts global ad spend will reach $1.30 trillion in 2026 and $1.40 trillion in 2027, effectively doubling the size of the market since the pandemic. That 2027 figure translates into $150 in advertising spend for every person alive today.

This expansion signals a structural shift. “Advertising has broken away from the economic cycle, and behaves in a way that doesn’t feel reflective of the real economy,” said Alex Brownsell, Head of Content at WARC Media and the report’s author. “New money has arrived from digital-native categories, while commerce has redrawn the measured media map, and Big Tech’s self-reinforcing flywheel is harvesting almost all incremental dollars.”

WARC’s projections are powered by a proprietary neural network trained on more than two million data points across 100 markets.

Big Tech Tightens Its Grip on Global Ad Dollars

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to command 56.1% of global ad spend (ex-China) in 2025, equal to $556.6 billion. Their collective share is projected to reach 58.8% by 2027, cementing their status as the biggest beneficiaries of new digital budgets.

TikTok and Reddit are notable exceptions, growing faster than incumbents but from far smaller bases. TikTok is on track to hit $45.2 billion in global ad revenue by 2027, buoyed by the removal of regulatory uncertainty in the US, its largest market.

The tech giants’ dominance is reinforced by heavy reinvestment. Meta channels nearly 30% of quarterly earnings into R&D, fueling product engines like Reels and Advantage+. Amazon’s retail media business operates on a similar data-rich loop, improving margins and drawing more ad dollars.

As these closed ecosystems expand, the open web is shrinking. Google’s Display Network is set for its third straight year of revenue decline in 2025 — a trend expected to persist through 2027. Lower creative costs driven by AI, tighter agency margins and reduced ad-tech fees are also funneling more budget directly to Big Tech platforms.

Digital-Native Categories Rewrite the Growth Playbook

Rapidly scaling sectors, especially cross-border e-commerce, are pouring billions into search, social and retail media. Retail media alone now accounts for 14.7% of global ad spend, a share that has grown by siphoning trade marketing budgets into measurable digital channels.

In categories such as Clothing & Accessories, over 80% of spend now flows into retail media, paid search and social. Technology and electronics brands are following the same path, gravitating toward performance-driven ecosystems that deliver trackable outcomes.

This has resulted in a two-speed advertising economy:

- Legacy categories: Stable, slower growth

- Digital-native categories: Rapid, platform-heavy expansion

WARC’s Voice of the Marketer survey shows that 51% of marketers expecting budget increases in 2025 plan to allocate more toward brand-building investment, an effort to counter inflationary pressures and soft consumer demand.

Market Leaders: US, China and UK Drive Global Expansion

The US remains the world’s largest ad market, accounting for 35.3% of global spend, or $421.1 billion, with growth of 8.9% this year. It is on track to hit $479.4 billion by 2027.

China, representing 16.8% of global spend, is projected to reach $200.1 billion in 2025. The UK, now the third-largest market globally, stands at $58.1 billion, with strong near-term growth forecasts.

Across Europe, markets remain resilient:

Germany: +9.3% in 2025

France: +8.9%

Italy: +7.4%

Spain: +9.8%

Among major emerging markets:

India: +4.6% in 2025, accelerating to 9.7% by 2027

Brazil: +10.7% in 2026

Japan: steady but slower at +4.6% this year

Canada and Mexico show mixed trajectories, with Mexico rebounding after an 8.8% contraction.

A Market Unmoored From the Real Economy

WARC notes that since 2021, global ad spend has consistently outpaced GDP growth, driven by corporate profitability, not consumer demand. Inflation, weak wage growth and higher borrowing costs have not dampened paid media budgets—showcasing the sector’s increasing detachment from macroeconomic conditions.

Yet even in a performance-dominated landscape, premium environments are proving their value, with evidence showing stronger brand signals and more predictable outcomes. WARC suggests that brands rebasing toward quality may protect long-term effectiveness amid an increasingly platform-concentrated ecosystem.