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In the diamond workshops of Surat, polishing wheels have slowed. “Fifty thousand jobs are already gone. Another hundred thousand could disappear if this continues,” said one industry leader, describing the devastation that followed President Donald J. Trump’s announcement of a 50 percent tariff on Indian exports.
Across the country, from Tirupur’s garment hubs to Ludhiana’s textile mills, anxiety hangs heavy. A Ludhiana-based exporter of bags and apparel summed up the mood: “We are in a wait-and-watch period right now, hoping it’s only a temporary setback and that our government will soon find a solution.”
The numbers are stark. According to government estimates, exports worth $48.2 billion are at risk. Jefferies’ strategist Chris Wood has warned the hit could climb to $55–60 billion, potentially shaving 1 percent off GDP growth. The Southern India Mills’ Association has flagged that 70 percent of textile and clothing exports to the US — a third of the industry’s foreign shipments — now face crippling duties.
According to the latest data from the government portal Niryat, India’s total goods exports reached about $434 billion in the year ended March 2025, of which nearly 20%, or $86.51 billion, were shipped to the US. Notably, Engineering goods made up the largest share at $19.16 billion, followed by electronic goods at $14.64 billion, drugs and pharmaceuticals at $10.52 billion, gems and jewellery at $9.94 billion, and ready-made garments at $5.33 billion.
The other commodities that India exports to the US are - cotton yarns, marine products, plastic & linoleum, leather, carpet, spice, ceramic, handicraft, rice, mica, coal, cereals preparation, fruits & vegetables, tea, dairy products, tobacco, jute, oilseeds, cashews, iron ore, etc.
Data from the Indian Trade Portal further shows that US imports from India stood at $91.23 billion in 2024, accounting for 2.72% of America’s total imports of $3.36 trillion. Since 2020, US imports from India have grown 70.2%, up from $53.58 billion that year.
These are not just trade statistics. It is a threat to livelihoods: the hand-embroiderers of Lucknow, the carpet-weavers of Bhadohi, the artisans of Jaipur’s marble and gem clusters. All tethered to supply chains that run straight into American retail giants, from Levi’s to Nike.
Turning adversity into opportunity
The tariff shock has triggered talk of something bold: a unified platform, provisionally called “Sanctions”, designed to showcase Indian products hit by US trade measures and reorient them toward domestic and alternative global markets.
“I see a great opportunity for the enormous pool of talent that India has… that we will convert adversity into opportunity. We will build great global brands out of India,” said brand strategist Suhel Seth.
Maruti Suzuki chairman R.C. Bhargava struck a nationalist chord: “It is our duty as Indians to do our very best to promote and maintain our dignity and respect and not give in to any kind of bullying in this matter.”
The idea is not without precedent. Just months earlier, when Washington slapped a 145 percent tariff on Chinese exports, Chinese suppliers responded with viral online campaigns — peeling back the production secrets of goods they made for Louis Vuitton and Estée Lauder, then offering near-identical products to consumers at a fraction of the cost.
Could Indian exporters emulate that strategy? Possibly. But industry leaders caution that branding, not just cost, will determine success.
“Indian consumers have an appetite for brands more than just quality products,” said Lloyd Mathias, angel investor and independent director. Without strong branding, he warned, tariff-hit products risk losing their value.
The limits of the domestic market
The Indian luxury market remains small. Mathias points out that India accounts for less than 2 percent of global luxury sales, with perhaps 10 million true luxury consumers. By contrast, the US boasts 200 million such buyers.
That mismatch spotlights the challenge: a platform like Sanctions could strengthen exporters at home, but the domestic market alone cannot offset the loss of America.
“Such platforms can offer some protection to artisans and manufacturers, but only on a small scale,” said Vipul Shah, former chairman of the Gems & Jewellery Export Promotion Council. “The loss from the US market is enormous. Compensating for it will require new investments, fresh markets and government support.”
Harish Bijoor, a brand strategy specialist, called such initiatives “long-term plays,” needing six to eight years to yield returns comparable to exports.
Amid this economic storm, Zomato-owner Eternal's CEO Deepinder Goyal struck a defiant tone. Reacting to the tariff escalation, he wrote: “Every few years, the world reminds us of our place. A threat here, a tariff there. But the message is the same: stay in your lane, India.”
“Global powers will always bully us, unless we take our destiny in our own hands. And the only way to do that is if we collectively decide to become the world’s largest unapologetic superpower in the world. In economy, in technology, in defense and most importantly, in ambition.”
His words echoed across social media and business communities - not as rhetoric, but as a rallying cry for self-reliance and strategic ambition at a moment of trade adversity.
An urgency that cannot wait
Yet time is a luxury many exporters do not have. Factories in Surat and Tirupur cannot operate at half speed indefinitely. As Dr. Sandeep Goyal, chairman of Rediffusion, put it: “Marketing tariff-affected products through such a platform cannot serve as an effective substitute for lost exports. Factories and workers cannot afford to run on slo-mo till then.”
Still, entrepreneurs are experimenting. Bihar’s makhana exporters, who shipped 600 tonnes to the US last year, are testing their brands in Indian malls.
"Many exporters I know, in the past 2-3 years, have slowly transitioned to launching their own brands in India. Initially, they were purely export-focused, but gradually, they began participating in exhibitions and offering the same quality in the domestic market. Selling high-end products in India is tough because of intense competition. The transition will be slow, but let's see how it pans out," said Rishabh Jain, founder of Mr Makhana.
Jewellery makers like Jewelbox are betting on lab-grown diamonds, even though the US dominates that market, with 58 percent of engagement rings now using synthetic stones compared to just 1 to 1.5 percent in India.
For natural diamonds, too, it will take time for India to catch up. "The US market is simply larger, with higher margins. Retailers there can sell at a premium, creating a 30-40% price difference compared to India," said Nipun Kochar, founder of lab grown diamond brand Jewelbox.
A defining test for India’s export story
India has weathered trade battles before, but rarely of this magnitude. This time, the response may need to be more inventive than negotiating exemptions or lobbying for relief. A platform like Sanctions - aggregating tariff-hit sectors, building brand equity, finding non-US buyers and nurturing domestic demand - could be the start of a new playbook.
For now, though, the country faces a grinding reality: billions in exports under siege, jobs vanishing and workers waiting for answers. The choice before India is whether to treat Sanctions as a slogan - or to build it into a strategy that turns a punishing tariff war into a chance at reinvention.